燃气轮机可靠度的模糊预计与优化分配

Fuzzy prediction and optimal allocation for gas turbine reliability

在用模糊数量化模糊信息的基础上,改进了常规的模糊综合评判方法,并用此方法对燃气轮机子系统的可靠度进行模糊预计,得到它们的可靠度置信区间。然后在此基础上,以研制费用作为资源约束,提出一个具有实际工程应用价值的燃气轮机可靠度优化分配模型。

Based on fuzzy information quantified by fuzzy numbers, the current method of fuzzy synthetical assessment is improved. The improved method is used to predict the subsystems' reliability of a gas turbine, and then the confidence intervals of the subsystems' reliability are obtained. Under the condition of developing cost of a gas tubine defined as a resource constraint, the optimal allocation model for gas turbine reliability, which is of great value to real engineeing, is proposed on the basis of results of the above fuzzy prediction.