展望盆地模拟

Outlook for basin modelling

通过苏北溱潼凹陷、松南长岭凹陷及东海西湖凹陷的实践,因循盆地原型及其并列叠加关系的地质分析约束建模,采取地质形象思维和数理逻辑思维结合的模拟思想,运用多模块组合、多方案运行,进行盆地地质作用和油气响应关系的“TSM”盆地系统模拟。目前,这一方法已在断-坳原型盆地叠加地质领域实现了断陷二维沉降过程的模拟,揭示了不同原型叠加导致地质作用的变化及其对油气形成和分布的控制作用,指示了油气运移的路径,预测了油气聚集的地带,发现了苏北的台南油田,并在松南的达尔罕反转构造获得相当经济产量。虽然“TSM”盆地系统模拟已经初步实现了面向实际,为油气勘探预测未知的决策服务,具有本质预测的功能。但只是“浅尝了一口梨”,还需要进行大量的研发工作,诸如挤榨前渊、走滑拉分和陆内坳陷等原型盆地模拟的研发,以及不同原型的叠加模拟更有待探索。尽管如此,“TSM”模拟已经探索到一条跨越已知到未知的鸿沟,它将成为油气勘探领域重要的创新科技链环之一。

Based on the practices in Qintong depression of Subei, Changling depression in southern Songliao basin and Xihu depression in East China Sea, constrained modelling through geological analysis of basins', prototypes and their juxtaposition and superimposition relations, and combining geological thinking in images with mathematical logic thinking, 'TSM' basin system modelling of geologic processes and oil & gas response relations are carried out by using combination of multiple modules and multiple programs. Now, modelling of rift's 2-D subsidence process has been realized in the domain of stacking geology of fault-subsidence prototype basins, which reveal the superimposition of various prototypes of basins would change the geological processes, control the generation and distribution of oil and gas, indicate migration path of oil and gas, and can even predict zones of oil and gas accumulation. Tainan oilfield has thus been discovered in Subei, and a considerable amount of commercial production has been acquired in Darhan reversed structure in southern Songliao basin. Although 'TSM' basin system modelling, with essential prediction functions, has been preliminarily applied in practice to serve decision-making in petroleum exploration, it is still in an initial stage with large amount of R&D work to be performed, such as simulation systems for various prototypes of basins, including compressing and squeezing foredeep basin, strike-slip and extensional basin and intracontinental depression basin, as well as simulation of superimposition of various prototypes of basins. Nevertheless, 'TSM' modellng has built a bridge leading from known to unknown, and it will become one of the innovative technology chains in our petroleum exploration.