江门地区一次暴雨天气分析及数值预报的应用

Analysis of a Heavy Rain Event in Jiangmen Area and Application of Numerical Forecast

本文探讨了江门地区前汛期一次暴雨天气发生发展的物理机制和数值预报产品的特点 ,结果表明 :槽前的正涡度平流导致强烈辐合上升运动 ,触发边界层不稳定能量的释放 ,是暴雨产生的触发机制 ;时、空分辨率较细的数值预报产品对暴雨落点、落区预报提供了较好的参考依据。

Physical mechanism of a heavy rain event in the first flood period over Jiangmen area and the characteristics of numerical forecast are studied. The result shows that the trigger mechanism of this heavy rain event is that ascending motion caused by positive vorticity advection in front of upper trough triggers the release of instability energy in boundary Layer; and numerical forecast with high temporal-spatial resolution is a significant reference to heavy rain forecast.