二元经济结构下的人口红利及其实现

Demographic Dividend under the Dual Structure of Economy in China

本文介绍了人口红利的概念及其实现条件。通过对中国人口年龄结构和经济环境变化的分析 ,论证了我国人口视窗开启的时间 ,分析了过去人口红利未能充分兑现的原因。在此基础上 ,提出了在我国二元经济结构下兑现人口红利的途径是通过转移农村剩余劳动力 ,一方面利用城镇经济发展机会解决农村就业问题 ,另一方面延缓城镇人口老龄化 ,延长人口视窗开放时间 ,实现经济再次飞跃发展。完成劳动力的顺利转移需要政府在建设城乡间统一公平的劳动力市场上发挥重要作用。

This paper introduce the concept of demographic dividend and the conditions of its realization. After analyzing the transition of population age structure and the social-economical environment in China, the paper demonstrates the opening time of demographic window, especially the reasons why the demographic dividend has not been realized in the past. It is concluded that the approaches to realize the demographic dividend in China with the dual economy structure is mainly the transfer of rural labors: on one hand solve the rural labor employment by making most use of the development of urban areas; on the other hand ease the population aging and postpone the opening time of demographic window to make another great leap of economy development. The key of successful rural labor transfer is to build up an fair labor market uniting the rural and the urban, which need the government play a constructiverole.