发展中国家发展毛纺织工业的对策研究

On the Countermeasure for Developing the Wool Textile Industry in Developing Countries

讨论了发展中国家或地区在发展毛纺织工业时，有关原料供应、市场销售和主导行业结构优化等对策中需要定量分析一些问题．在分析预测毛纺织原料系统时，使用能体现社会系统特点的系统动力学模型，给出了简单的的系统动力学模型流程图．改变微观措施和宏观措施的变量值，可以得到有效的对等方案．通过预测人口变化、国民收入变化、积累率和衣着消费比等可计算出毛纺织产品的国内市场容量．对于外贸，主要说明以获得最大效益来确定出。产品结构的线性规划法，给出了目标函数和约束条件．文中还提出了主导行业选择的原则和具体的评价指标，给出了以调整投资比例为手段的行业结构优化程序困．按上述方法对某地区得到的结呆和实际相符．

here are three objective influential factors, i. e. raw materials of the wool textile industry, the wool textile market and the optimization of the wool textile industry structure, as the main aspects in countermeasure research for developing the wool textile industry in developing countrics. S. D model is selected to analyse the raw materials of the wool textile, predicated the market capacity at home and abroad separately. In the optimizing analysis of the industry structure, the index (demand income flexibility and technology advancement ratio) were used in adjusting the proportion of investment distribution.