震源系统不稳定度指标和强震短临预报

UNSTABILITY INDEX OF SOURCE SYSTEM AND SHORT TERM PREDICTION OF THE STRONG EARTHQUAKES

在探讨震源系统不稳定产生的物理基础前提下，应用调制模式提出了利用小震日频次起伏加剧与外因的相关性进行强震的短临时间预报的设想，具体提出了调制小震频次起伏加剧的两个判别震源系统不稳定度的指标λ＿１和λ＿２。前者为单因子调制指标，后者为多因子调制或多因子调制强化指标。关于大震的地点预报，应用立交模式短临阶段出现调制小震通过未来大震的共轭小震活动条带进行预报。

On the premise of studying the physics basis produced by unstability of source system,andaccording to the modulation model,we put forward the suggestion to make short term predic-tion using correlation between external agencies and frequency fluctuation intensification ofsmall modulation earthquakes,we also suggest two indexes λ_1,λ_2 to discriminate the unstabilityof source system,the former is the unique factor modulation index,and the latter is multi-factormodulation index , or multi-factor modulation intensification index.The site prediction ofstrong earthquake should be decided according to the conjugate belt of small earthquake activi-ty in the stereoscopic model which appears immediately before earthquake and goes cross thefuture epicenter.