甘肃鼢鼠对油松危害动态经济阈值研究

Study on Dynamic Economic Threshold of Damage to Chinese Pine Forests by Gansu Zoker

以油松林、甘肃鼢鼠和防治系统为研究对象,采用系统分析法,组建了甘肃鼢鼠种群、油松、林价、投饵密度等一系列模型,并以经济指标偶联求得防治甘肃鼢鼠的动态经济阈值模型。结果表明:毒饵单价低时,切封洞法经济阈值最大,插洞法最小;而毒饵单价高时,插洞法最大,切封洞法最小;防治定植1年生油松经济阈值较大,4～5年的最小,定植6年后经济阈值逐渐增加。从林地油松被害数量估测模型得知,油松应营造在甘肃鼢鼠2.4只/hm^2以下的林地,才能保证成林。

Based on study of the ecosytem of Chinese pine forests, gansu zoker, and its control, the dynamic sub -models were made; sub -model of population dynamic of gansu zoker, submodel of population dynamic of gansu zoker, sub-model of damage to Chinese pine forests,sub-model of forest price and sub-model of balling density et al. , by means of system analysis methold. Then the model of dynamic economic thresthold was bult from coupled economic ef- fects. The results of this simulation were as follows; under the low poison bait economic threshold of cut and occluded burrow poison bait method was the highest, but insertional burrow poisons bait method was the smallest. Under the high poison bait inverthest economic thresthold of insertional burrow poison bait method was the highest, but cut and occluded burrow poison bait method was the low economic.thresthold of annual planting Chinese pine is larger, 4-5 years planting -Chinese pine is the least. It became larger and larger, after 6 years. Estimative damage from Chinese pine model in forests showed that the number of gansu zoker should be lower than 2. 4 ind/hm2, only in this case the afforestation could be successful. Othrewise, it could be failed.