试论灰色灾变预测

The Discussion on the Grey Foreeast

在论述灰色灾变预测的建模及预测全过程的基础上，探讨了灰色灾变预测的一种特殊情况——拓扑预测，提出对非平稳时序过程分两步预测，建立灰色拓扑辅助预测模型，提高了对非平稳时序过程的预测精度。

In this paper,bdsed on the Grey burst- change foreczest,the topological forecast isdiseussed. Two stepe of forecast for nonstationary time series are presented,which first to eetablishmain model,then the model for different burst-change varables,which is divided from the estimatedsingular point.The forecast sum of two medels is the forecast value of nonstationary time series. This method of forecast is better than the common one.