地空导弹研制中的飞行试验样本选择与经费预计的风险决策

Risk Decision about the Sample Selection of Flying Test and Cost Forecasting in the Development of Ground to Air Missile

本文利用可靠性数学模型计算成败型（间断时间试验）参试系统和设备的样本容量和最大允许的失效数及置信下限，再利用经费估计模型求出参试系统和设备样本容量和经费之间的关系，将二者有机的结合，以便优化研制管理。文中以导弹飞行试验数量的决策为例，阐述了该方法在型号研制过程中参与辅助决策的作用。

In this paper, reliability mathematical model is used to predetermine the sample quantity of success-failure type systems and equipment and the maximum allowed failure quantity and the lower confidance limit.The cost forecasting model is used to determine the relationship be-tween the sample capacity and the cost.Their combination can optimize the development and man-agement.For example,the decision of missile quantity in flying test is used to explain the function of the method.