公共投资、私人投资与经济增长关系的实证研究——一个向量误差修正模型

Positive Analysis of the Relationship between Economic Growth and Public Investment and Private Investment

本文首先指出传统的总量生产函数方法和动态生产函数方法在实证研究中的不足,在此基础上用向量误差修正模型来对公共投资、私人投资与经济增长之间的关系进行实证研究。实证结果表明,在长期内,公共投资和私人投资对经济增长都有促进作用,但公共投资的贡献更大。在短期内,公共投资对经济增长有明显的促进作用,私人投资对经济增长虽有正向的促进作用,但不是很显著。经济增长对私人投资有很强的促进作用,公共投资对私人投资有明显的挤出效应。最后,笔者根据实证结果提出了相应的政策建议。

This paper conducts a positive study of the relationship between economic growth and public investment and private investment with the help of vector error-correction model after pointing out the faults of traditional approaches of aggregate production function and dynamic production function in positive study. As the study results show, in the long term, both public and private investment can stimulate economic growth, though the contribution by the former is greater. In the short term, public investment plays a distinctive role in economic growth while the role played by private investment is positive though indistinctive. On the other hand, economic growth is also a substantial boost to private investment while public investment will have crowding-out effect on private investment. Based on the above analysis some policy proposals have been put forward.