人民币实际有效汇率指数的测算和分析

Calculation and Analysis of the RMB' s Real Effective Exchange Rate Index

实际有效汇率是影响一国对外经济活动的重要变量。本文在测算人民币实际有效汇率指数的基础上,分析了1994年以来影响人民币实际有效汇率的主要因素,并阐述了人民币实际有效汇率变动可能对经济产生的效应,指出只有改革现行汇率形成机制,才是避免人民币实际有效汇率不当变动的根本所在。

Real effective exchange rate is a key variable affecting a nation's foreign economic activities. After calculating the real effective exchange rate index, this article analyzes the major factors impacting the index since 1994, and then expounds the probable effects of the fluctuations of the exchange rate on economic growth. Finally it concludes that the underlying step to eliminate the improper fluctuations of the index is to reform the current exchange rate system.