农产品产量与收购价格的因果关系检验

A Granger Causality Test on China' s Agricultural Products Output and their Purchasing Prices

近几年,中国农产品产量一直徘徊不前,通过引入市场竞争提高农产品收购价格,刺激农民务农积极性一直被视为解决“三农”问题的有效途径之一。基于此,对农产品产量与收购价格进行实证检验极为必要,本文使用格兰杰因果关系方法检验八种农产品的产量与价格之间的因果关系,结果表明:粮食、油料、干鲜果、水产品的一阶滞后收购价格与其产量有因果关系;其余农产品的收购价格与产量的因果关系不明显。

In recent years, China' s agricultural products output has been fluctuating. To increase the purchasing price of agricultural products through market competition in order to arouse peasants' enthusiasm in farming has long been considered an effective way to solve the problem of 'agriculture, countryside and peasants' . Therefore, it is quite necessary to conduct an empirical test of the relationship between agricultural products output and their purchasing prices. Through the Granger causality test on eight kinds of agricultural products output and their purchasing prices, this article concludes that the output basically has no impact on the purchasing price. While for grain, oil crops, dry or fresh fruits, aquatic products, there are causal relations between the first order lag purchasing prices and their output, for other agricultural products the causal relations are not distinct.