利用可公度信息预测伊春市主要江河洪水灾变事件

Applying commonsurable infromation to forecast the flood event in main rivers in Yichun City

应用可公度信息预测理论,采用三元可公度公式直接外推法结合四元可公度公式概周期计算方法,对伊春市主要河流的洪水灾变事件进行了预测。该方法思路新颖,模拟精度较高,外延预报精度有待事实检验。

The commonsurable information forecast theory is untilized on the flood cataclysm event in main rivers in Yichun City with the method of the combination between the ternary commonsurable formula direct extrapolation and the quarternary commonsurable formula approximate period counting.This method opens a new trains of thoughts and has high mimic acuracy.But the extensional forcast acuracy awaits to be examined by facts.