中国转型期货币流通速度分析——基于引入一阶替代变量的观测

An Analysis of the Velocity of Monetary Circulation in Transforming Times in China ——A Discussion Based on Observations by Introducing the 1st Substitutive Variable

货币流通速度变化是对货币失衡的内在调节 ,选择货币流通速度及其变化率是分析中国转型期货币需求的重要途径。货币流通速度及其变化率在经济扩展与收缩期分别上升或者下降 ,从而对经济接近过度繁荣和步入衰退时期的货币紧缩与扩张政策产生冲消后果 ,制定货币政策须考虑货币供给在货币流通速度基础上发挥作用。货币流通速度变化率与利率、通货膨胀率以及货币供给的关系沿时间流程的一致性削弱了理论界认为中国货币需求函数不稳定的相关结论。各层次货币供给中与宏观经济目标相关性较强的是M2 ,在货币供给外生条件下 ,中央银行可以选择广义货币增长率为货币政策中介指标 ,但在M2 内生化特征不断增强条件下 ,不妨选择利率作为中介指标并控制通货膨胀率 。

The velocity of monetary circulation is an internal adjustment of monetary imbalance. Hence the choice of this velocity and the ratio of its change offer an important means for analysis of monetary demand in China in this period of transformation. The velocity of monetary circulation and the ratio of its change ascend and descend respectively in times of economic expansion and shrink, removing the effects created by the policy of monetary expansion in face of economic overprosperity and that of monetary shrink in face of economic decline. So the role of monetary supply in the velocity of monetary circulation must be taken into consideration when the monetary policy is being worked out. The agreement in the relationship between the ratio of change of the velocity of monetary circulation and that of interests and inflation and monetary supply in the course of time going undermines the relative conclusion with regard to the unstable function of monetary demand in China held by the world of theory. The function which is closely related to the macro-economic targets is M 2. Under the external circumstances of monetary supply, the central bank may set the general ratio of monetary growth as the medium targets of the monetary policy. However, if the internal characteristic of M 2 keeps intensifying, the ratio of interests may be set as the medium targets to control the inflation so that monetary balance and economic balance may be attained by limiting monetary demand with practical interets.