应用系统建模法对南海某舰面温度的建模及预报

Modeling and forecasting for surface temperature in a Nanhai warship by using system modeling method

在系统建模理论的基础上,运用改进的动态数据建模法,对南海某舰面温度数据进行了建模,并通过模型的适用性检验发现,ARMA(6,5)模型是最合适的,根据建立的模型利用条件期望法进行预报,结果与原始数据接近得很好。所有的建模和分析过程均在MATLAB上实现。

This paper introduces the dynamic data system modeling method and conditional mathematical expectation predicting method. Using the improved system modeling method, the paper studies the model of the surface temperature of a Nanhai warship and verifies the model's validity. Based on the adaptability test of the model, we can draw the conclusions that the ARMA(6,5)model is most suitable for the surface temperature in a Nanhai warship and the model is stable. Then using the conditional mathematical expectation predicting method, the paper does the simple prediction through the ARMA(6,5) model. The predicting result is rather satisfying. All the modeling and predicting procedures are realized by MATLAB software. The result shows that the methods are simple and easy to be applied to practice.