登陆台风的可公度性

Commensurability of Landing Typhoons

可公度性表示自然界事物之间的一种秩序。可公度性即概周期性 ,是周期性的一种扩展。为了对浙江登陆台风的发生年份进行预测 ,采用三元可公度式进行排列计算 ,可以得到其后几年内的可公度式 ,并根据可公度式频数的峰值进行判断。利用可公度性的原理和方法 ,对登陆台风的长期变化过程进行了预测分析 ,其结果是比较好的 ,这对沿海地区的防台减灾具有重要的实际意义。由于它能够揭示客观世界中大量存在的自然现象之间的内在联系 ,因而具有广阔的应用前景。

The commensurability indicates a certain order existing in natural phenomena. The commensurability (approximate periodicity) is the expansion of periodicity. In order to forecast the occurrence year of a landing typhoon in Zhejiang, a commensurable formula of three elements was used in arrangement and calculation. Thus the commensurable formula for several years in the future can be given, and the occurrence year of a landing typhoon can be judged according to the peak value of frequency of the commensurable formula. The long-term change process of a landing typhoon can be forecasted and analyzed by means of the principle and method of commensurability. The result is relatively good and is of practical significance for typhoon prevention and disaster reduction along the coast regions. Being able to reveal the interrelation of natural phenomena, the method has broad prospects in application.