我国种子市场需求量预测的思考

Study on the forecast of seed-demand in China

基于影响种子市场需求因素的多元假设,建立了我国种子市场需求因素测度指标体系,采用因子分析法得到了影响我国种子市场需求的3个主要因子(累计贡献率达82.733%),并由此建立了种子需求预测模型。对杂交玉米种子的实证预测分析结果表明,这种借助于计算机软件的预测模型比传统的经验预测方法要精确得多;我国杂交玉米种子未来总体需求量将长期低于9亿kg,2004～2006年我国杂交玉米种子市场需求量将在8.27亿kg左右;随着农户收入水平和受教育程度的提高及种植结构的优化,种子市场需求量将进一步降低。

Based on such assumption that there are many factors influencing seed-demand,firstly,this paper sets up the index system to measure the quantity of seed-demand in China,then,gets three major factors (their contribution rate is up to 82.733%) through factor analysis,and lastly builds a seed-demand forecasting model.And through the example of hybrid maize,this paper finds:the predicting method used in this paper is more accurate than traditional experience forecasting way;in China,the annual hybrid maize seed-demand will be below 900 000 000 kg in a long time,and the annual demand in 2004-2006 will stay at the level of 827 000 000 kg;and the seed-demand will decrease further with the improvement of peasant household's income and schooling and optimization of the pattern of farming.