我国丙烯行业发展趋势及市场分析

Development Trend and Market Analysis of the Propylene Industry in China

由于丙烯下游产业的快速发展,特别是聚丙烯装置的高速度建设,未来几年我国丙烯需求将出现持续、高速的增长,估计到2007年,我国丙烯自给率将比2003年的96.3%下降约6个百分点,丙烯供需缺口将达到80万～100万吨,丙烯与乙烯的地位可能发生反转,丙烯与乙烯之间的价格对应关系也将倒挂,即出现丙烯价格高于乙烯价格的趋势。为此,需要对乙烯与丙烯的关系加以认真审视、重新定位,对现有丙烯装置进一步采取促产措施,扩大丙烯来源,适时采用丙烯新工艺、建设新装置,并增加从周边国家和地区的进口。

With the fast development of the downstream propylene industry, particularly the high-speed construction of polypropylene facilities, sustained and quick growth of propylene demand is expected in the years to come. It is estimated that by 2007, China's self-sufficiency rate of propylene will decrease by about 6% compared with 96.3% in 2003. The supply gap of propylene will reach 0.8-1 million tons. The position of propylene and ethylene will possibly reverse, i.e., the price of propylene tends to be higher than that of ethylene. As a result, it is necessary to review and reposition carefully propylene-ethylene relationship, take further measures to increase output of existing propylene facilities, expand sources of propylene, adopt new technologies as appropriate, build new facilities and increase propylene import from surrounding countries and regions.