中国的工业生产力革命——用随机前沿生产模型对中国大中型工业企业全要素生产率增长的分解及分析

China's Industrial Productivity Revolution A Stochastic Frontier Production Function Analysis of TFP Growth in China's Large and Medium Industrial Enterprises

本文运用中国大中型工业企业 1 995— 2 0 0 2年期间的年度企业数据 ,系统地研究 3. 7个两位数工业行业的全要素生产率 (TFP)增长趋势 ,并用随机前沿生产模型 ,将生产率增长分解为前沿技术进步 (FTP)、相对前沿技术效率 (TE)的变化、配置效率 (AE)以及规模经济性 (SE)四大因素。主要结论 :(一 )TFP的行业加权年均增长率为 6. 8% ,并呈逐年上升的趋势 ;(二 )前沿技术进步已经成为TFP增长的最重要动力 ,企业因前沿技术进步平均每年提高全要素生产率高达 1 4个百分点 ;(三 )企业相对前沿的技术效率差距拉大 ,已经严重阻碍了TFP增长 ,导致TFP平均每年下降 7个百分点 ,这既是挑战 ,也是反映今后企业通过追赶先进技术提高生产力的潜力。 (四 )企业投入要素的配置效率对TFP增长几乎没有贡献 ,年均贡献仅为 0 . 0 2个百分点 ,而企业的规模经济性对TFP的贡献也仅为负 0 . 3 3个百分点 ,这与前沿技术进步和技术效率变化对TFP的影响相比都微不足道。分析表明 ,前沿技术进步一方面推动着生产力的快速增长 ,另一方面却加剧了企业间的技术效率差距 ,导致更激烈的市场竞争压力。世纪之交的中国最重要的工业企业正经历着一场以前沿技术进步及追赶先进企业为核心的生产力革命。

Using the stochastic frontier production function analysis and a firm-level panel data collected by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, this paper examines the total factor productivity growth of China's large and medium-sized industrial enterprises sector during 1995—2002. The major findings include: (1) The weighted average of the annual growth of TFP in China's large and medium industrial enterprises sector was as high as 6.8% with a rising trend during 1996—2002; (2) The contribution to TFP growth by Frontier Technology Progress reached as much as 14 percentage points a year on average; (3) The decline in Technical Efficiency (Relative to the Frontier) reduced the growth of TFP by 7.1 percentage points a year on average; (4) Allocative Efficiency contributed on average only 0.02 percentage points a year to the growth of TFP and Scale Dis-Economy slowed the growth of TFP by 0.33 percentage points a year. The results show that at the turn of the century, the most important part of China's industry was in the middle of an industrial productivity revolution driven by both frontier technological progress and the great potential of catching up in technical efficiency by the lagging enterprises. The revolution is driven by increased competition, privatization, foreign investment, and business expansion.