我国经济周期波动中实际产出波动性的动态模式与成因分析

The Analysis of Dynamic Patterns and Resources of Output Volatilities in China's Business Cycles

本文度量了我国经济周期中的条件波动性 ,并检验了导致实际产出波动性降低的主要原因。我们发现 ,我国经济周期波动性与价格和货币等名义经济波动性之间存在密切关系 ;从产出波动性的成分分解来看 ,产出波动性降低的主要原因源于投资波动性、政府支出波动性和净出口波动性的降低 ,而消费波动性继续保持平稳态势。这意味着宏观经济调控在短期内仍然需要采用需求管理的政策工具 ,但长期内应该注重以市场机制为基础的供给管理政策 ,并适当激活名义经济和实际经济活性 ,以保持经济持续、快速和稳定增长。

This paper we calculate the output volatilities and test the reasons which cause the decline in growth volatility. We find the evidences that there is a close relationship between output volatility and nominal volatilities such as price and money supply fluctuations. The volatilities in investment, government spending and net export are the procyclical components in the growth volatility, and the aggregate consumption is still stable during the business cycle. These mean that macroeconomic control should mainly rely on the demand management in the short run, and should turn to supply management, which depends on market mechanism in the long run. The macroeconomic control should tend to stimulus the variability in nominal and real economies, in order to sustain the fast and stable growth.