现收现付制与人口老龄化关系定量分析

Quantifying analysis on the relationship between PAYG system and population aging

中国目前的养老保险和医疗保险实行的是基金积累制为主的筹资模式。按照有关文献的解释 ,这是因为中国正面临着人口迅速老龄化的压力 ,现收现付制不能有效应对人口老龄化 ,而基金积累制则不存在这一问题。本文构造了一个模型 ,详细分析了现收现付制与人口老龄化的关系 ,给出人口老龄化是否导致现收现付制发生支付危机的定量判别条件 ,并根据人口学相关理论和人口资料预测了 2 0 0 1— 2 0 60年中国人口老龄化趋势 ,从而检验了人口老龄化是否引发现收现付制的支付危机 ,同时给出了现收现付制度下养老金缴费率和人均养老金水平增长率的确定原则。

Currently, main financing model of pension and health insurance in China is funding system. According to some literatures, the reason why to adopt funding system in China is the press of population aging, and the system of PAYG can't cope with the phenomenon of population aging. This paper constructs a model to analyze the relationship between PAYG system and population aging, and give some quantifying conditions to confirm whether population aging can result in a payment crisis under PAYG system. Then, we forecast the process of population aging in China from 2001 to 2060, which proves the relationship between population aging and PAYG system in China. This model also gives principles to define the rate of contribution and the rate of growth in average pension.