稠油蒸汽吞吐产量预报方法

METHOD OF FORECASTING PRODUCTION OF HEAVY OIL BY CYCLIC STEAM INJECTION PROCESS

针对稠油藏在蒸汽吞吐开采时．其产量呈周期性变化的特点，建立了自适应混合回归模型，用来估计蒸汽吞吐稠油藏的最优参数，拟合、预报稠油蒸汽吞吐产量。应用该模型对辽河油田Ｄ６６等区块进行了拟合和预报．获得了个人满意的结果。该方法对稠油热采长远规划、年度计划及开发方案的编制具有重要的作用。

Based on the characteristics of cyclic yield changes in production of a heavy oil reservoir by cyclic steam injection process,a self-adapting mixed regression model has been developed.This model is used to estimate the optimum pa-rameters for heavy oil reservoir,fit and forecast yield by the process. Using it to fit and forecast the district D66 etc of Liaohe oil field,the satisfying results were obtained.The method possesses a guiding significance in drawing up a long-term plan of the heavy oil thermal recovery,annul plan and development program.