摘要
以实例为背景,系统分析了水库运行过程中常遇的洪水风险事件、大坝安全风险事件及水库防洪调度的主要风险因素,提出了水库防洪调度多因素组合风险估计的蒙特卡罗 (Monte Carlo)模拟技术.研究表明,研究建立的水库防洪调度风险模型是合理可行的,适当抬高水库汛限水位增加的系统风险是可以接受的.
Based on the actual case, a systematic analysis is made on the event of flood risk and the event of safety risk frequently occurred during the operation of reservoir, and the main risk factors are studied as well; in which Monte-Carlo simulation for evaluating the combined risk from more risk factors for the flood control of reservoir is introduced. The study shows that the risk evaluation model for reservoir flood control operation developed in the study is reasonable and feasible, and then the systematic risk increased by raising the flood control level properly is acceptable basically.
出处
《水利水电技术》
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第3期58-61,共4页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
关键词
汛限水位
防洪调度
风险分析
蒙特卡罗模拟
组合风险
flood control level
flood control operation
risk analysis
Monte-Carlo simulation
combined risk
