新疆北部棉铃虫越冬代羽化物候学模型

Phenology Model for Cotton Bollworm Overwinter Generation in North Xinjiang

以每年1月1日为日度计算起始日期,以5.0、10.0和15.0℃作为发育起点温度,采用应用生物物候学singlesine计算模型,分析了新疆北部棉区棉铃虫越冬代羽化初期和高峰期所需日度。结果表明:发育最高温度未加以限定时,以5.0、10.0和15.7℃为棉铃虫发育起点温度,越冬代棉铃虫羽化初期所需要累积日度数为516.23、298.41和131.97;越冬代棉铃虫羽化高峰期所需要累积日度数为784.55、489.13和240.50。发育上限最高温度限定为30.0℃,以5.0、10.0和15.7℃为棉铃虫发育起点温度,越冬代棉铃虫羽化初期所需要累积日度数为511.77、293.95和127.47;越冬代棉铃虫羽化高峰期所需要累积日度数为762.73、470.84和233.31。利用日度和日期预测对棉铃虫羽化进行预测,表明:羽化初期和高峰期日度预测的精度大于日期预测;棉铃虫越冬代羽化初期预测的精确度优于羽化高峰期的预测。棉铃虫越冬代羽化预测结果经LSD0.05多重比较,显示:羽化初期日期预测和6种日度预测存在显著性差异,但6种日度预测之间均无显著性差异,羽化高峰期日期预测和6种日度预测之间无显著性差异,6种日度预测之间也均无显著性差异。

Cotton bollworm,Helicoverpa armigera Hübner,has become a serious cotton pest in North of Xinjiang.Single sine wave models for beginhing and peak emergence of overwinter generation were developed.No top temperature limited and with low temperatures 5.0℃,10.0℃ and 15.7℃,degree day sums was 516.23DD, 298.41DD and 131.97DD for primary emergence of overwinter generation,and 784.55DD,489.13DD and 240.50DD for peak eones.With top temperature 30℃ and low temperatures 5.0℃,10.0℃ and 15.7℃,degree day sums were 511.77DD,293.95DD and (127.47)DD for beginning emergence of overwinter generation,and 762.73DD,470.84DD and 233.31DD for peak emergence.Prediction errors were validated by different models.The accuracy of degree day model was better than that of calendar date estimation,and it was considerably better for beginning emergence of overwinter generation,but was poorer for peak emergence of overwinter generation. The type influence for models on prediction errors was tested with LSD_(0.05) of the one way analysis of variance (ANOVA).There was significant difference between calendar date estimation and six degree day model for prediction errors of beginning emergence,but significant difference did not exist among six degree day model.Differences between calendar date estimation and six degree day model were not significant for prediction errors of peak emergece,and significant differences did not exist among six degree day model also.