作物产量潜力极限研究

Study on potential limit of crop yield.

应用模型模拟方法研究近5 0年来主要作物产量演变趋势结果表明,作物长期进化过程中产量演变遵循S曲线增长规律,目前主要作物产量处于S曲线驻点(最快增长值点)左右,种植效益已开始下降,进一步提高产量日益困难,作物产量将不断接近其极限,多数作物未来产量潜力极限约为目前产量的2～3倍。提高作物产量潜力途径主要包括加强农田水利建设、提高作物育种手段、强化作物栽培措施。

The variation trends of the main crops yields in recent five decades were simulated by linear,quadratic,cubic and exponential models simultaneously.The results show that the main crops yields over years evolve in curve S trend in a long run,and their present yields are around its sharpest point.It will become more and more difficult for man to increase the crop yield from now on because cropping benefit has begun to decline.The maximal potentials of the main crops yields will probably be two to three times of their present levels.The approaches how to enhance the crop yield potential can be generalized as hydraulic infrastructure construction,breeding techniques,cultivation measures,input optimization and environmental improvement.