我国外汇储备对通货膨胀影响的实证分析

Research on the Relation between Foreign Exchange Reserve and Inflation

近来,通货膨胀趋势日显,外汇储备的大幅度增加与通货膨胀之间是否具有因果关联性成为一个值得探讨的问题。文章将二十世纪八九十年代的通货膨胀时期与此次通货膨胀时期作为两个时间段,运用格兰杰因果检验与相关分析的方法,来阐明在这两个不同时期,外汇储备与通货膨胀之间的关系,并探究其原因,给出相关的政策建议。

Whether the increasing foreign exchange reserve (FER) is correlative with inflation is a research-worthy problem. On the basis of two-phase data, the author applies Granger Causal Relation Test and correlative analysis method to explain the relation between FER and inflation in the different period. The causes of the relationship and the policy suggestions are put forward here.