河北省作物生产潜力及人口承载力研究

On Crop Productive Potentialities and Population Bearing Capactity in Hebei Province

本文采用改进的农业生态区域法,将河北省分成8个农业自然区进行分析,计算了春小麦、春玉米、冬小麦、夏玉米4种主要作物的光温生产潜力,经过降水、自然灾害、土地质量等自然因素订正,分析了河北省作物生产潜力。通过对农田投入水平、历年来粮食作物产量分析,预测了河北省2010年和2030年粮食潜力总产;采用一元线性回归模型与GM(1,1)模型预测了2010年和2030年人口数量、耕地面积及粮食单产发展趋势;结合宽裕型、小康型、富裕型3种消费水平分别预测了预测期内土地资源人口承载力状况;最后提出了河北省土地资源可持续发展的战略对策。

Based on the improved farming ecological regionalization, Hebei was divided into 8 natural districts to analyse. It was calculated that lighttemperature productive potentialities on 4 kinds of main crops that is spring wheat, spring maize, winter wheat, summer maize in the whole province. Through correcting of natural factor such as precipitation, natural calamity, land quality, etc., it has analysed the crop productive potentialities of Hebei. Hebei's grain potentiality gross output in 2010 and 2030 years have predicted by analysing the throw competence into to farmland and output of the cereal crops over the years. By means of linear regression model and grey system GM(1,1) model, the size of population, the cultivated land area and the grain yield of 2010 and 2030 years have been forecasted. According to the three consumption levels, welloff,comparatively welloff and surplus, the population supporting capactity of land resources in forecasted years have been discussed. Finally strategic countermeasure of land resource sustainable development of Hebei was proposed in order to offer scientific basis that is established to aim at stabilize, coordinate, sustainable development relationship between human beings and land resources.