WTO框架下我国棉花供需平衡研究

Study on Equilibrium of Cotton Supply and Demand in China under WTO Framework

本文运用灰色系统一阶预测模型和马尔柯夫链对未来我国棉花的供需总量进行了预测,结果显示未来较长时间内我国棉花市场存在着较大的供需缺口,因此在WTO框架下,需要按照比较优势原则,依赖国际棉花市场,满足国内棉花需求量的日益增长,实现资源的有效配置。

This paper forecast the quantity of cotton supply and consumption of China in the future, using Grey System FirstOrder Forecasting Model and Mikorf Chain. It indicates that there will exist a big gap between the cotton supply and demand in the future, so, we should use international cotton resources to meet domestic increasingly cotton demand, according to the comparative advantage principle, and to realize the efficiency collocation of resoruces.