中国私人汽车拥有量灰色建模和动态预测——灰色建模和动态预测中模型波动分析

A Gray Forecast Model of Possession of Private Vehicles

本文利用灰色系统理论对我国私人汽车拥有量进行了灰色建模和动态预测,并提出模型波动幅度指数的概念,以解释样本容量和数据变换方法选择不同所造成模型预测结果的偏差.此项研究可对我国私人汽车拥有量的准确预测及交通规划和管理提供理论依据.

The predicable model of GM (1,1) about possession of private automobile is made according to the theory of gray system. A concept of model vibration extent index is put forward, which is used to explain the variation of model predicable outcome resulted of choosing different sample volume and the method of data exchange. This study can afford a fundamental theory for traffic plan & management and precisely forecasting the possession of national private vehicles.