我国城镇居民消费需求分析与预测

An Analysis and Forecase of Consumer Demand of Chinese Urban Residents

根据《中国统计年鉴》中的相关数据,采用扩展线性支出系统方法对我国1998—2002年城镇居民的消费需求情况进行实证分析,以揭示近年来我国城镇居民消费支出情况及特点,运用时间序列线性回归模型对未来我国城镇居民的消费需求变化趋势、消费热点进行预测。

In order to reveal the consumption patterns and the expenditure features of Chinese urban residents in recent years,the paper use the data of 'Chinese Statistics Yearbook'(1999-2003) to do the positive analysis on our urban residents' consumption by applying the model of ELES.This paper also forecasts the future changing tendency of consumption and consumptive hot issues of our country's urban residents.