摘要
为研究装备研制工程进度的风险分布特征,建立了包含正态分布、β分布、三角分布的随机网络进度风险分析模型,通过蒙特卡罗法仿真获得工程项目的进度估计及其统计分布特性,从而获得工程总工期的风险,并结合实例进行了分析.
This paper established is a risk analysis models of normal distribution, β distribution and triangular distribution of Graphical Evaluation and Review technique, for the study of the character of developmental program of weapon equipment schedule risk distribution. Based on computer simulation of Monte Carlo, the estimated schedule and the statistical distribution character of projects are given, then the risk distribution of total period is obtained. A case analysis is conducted in detail.
出处
《装甲兵工程学院学报》
2005年第1期48-51,共4页
Journal of Academy of Armored Force Engineering
关键词
进度风险
随机网络
概率分布
计算机仿真
schedule risk
GERT
probability distribution
computer simulation
