提高水库汛限水位的防洪风险研究

Flood control risk analysis on rising limited water level in flood season

水库在汛期的汛限水位,关系到水库发电效益与水库防洪安全两个方面。从防洪角度,汛限水位越低,意味着预留的水库调洪库容越大,对水库防洪较为有利。本文以江西省最大的水电站万安水库为实例,应用季节性的一阶自回归模型,研究提高水库汛限水位,对水库防洪风险的影响,为决策提供依据。

As a key parameter of multi-purpose reservoir operation,flood limit water level plays a critical role in achieving the balance between flood control and economic benefit. This article is based on the Wanan Reservoir which is the biggest reservoir of Jiangxi Province. Seasonal AR(1) model is used to generate a great number of reservoir inflow flood.Analysising the flood prevention risk when rising limited water level in flood season. The result can give proof to make decision.