应用灰色动态模型预测血吸虫病病情

Application of grey model(1,1) in the prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence in Jicheng

目的对洞庭湖区退田还湖地区的集成垸试点血吸虫病的病情进行预测,并为国家卫生机构合理分配卫生资源提供决策依据。方法应用灰色动态模型[GM(1,1)模型]对洞庭湖区华容县的集成垸试点血吸虫病患病率建模进行3年预测。结果集成垸试点GM(1,1)预测模型为X((k+1)=50.0189e0.130649k-34.4789,赞1)连续3年预测值分别为38.15%,43.48%和49.55%。结论集成垸试点残差GM(1,1)模型预测效果好;血吸虫病发病在未来3年内有缓慢上升的趋势,要加强当地血防工作。

Objective To forecast the schistosomiasis prevalence in Jicheng, an area of opening sluice for water store in Dongting Lake and to help the health organization to make related policies. Methods Grey model(1,1) was applied to predict the schistosomiasis prevalence in a series of three years. Results With the predicted model of X(1)(k + 1) = 50.018 9e0.130 649k - 34.478 9, the predicted values of coming three years were 38.15%,43.48% and 49.55% respectively. Conclusions The prediction is a success. Schistosomiasis prevalence in Jicheng will increase in the coming three years. Schistosomiasis prevention should be reinforced.