美元化的宏观经济政策效应分析和我国政府的防范措施

An Analysis on US Dollar-oriented Macro-economy Policy Effect and Protection Measures of China’s Government

美元化是一种强势货币驱逐弱势货币的货币替代现象,本币的可兑换程度、国内金融市场的完善程度、本国的国民收入水平和财富水平、本外币真实收益率的差异及本币汇率是否高估等因素都影响着美元化程度;美元化不仅会弱化一国的财政政策的收入效应,还会影响一国的货币政策的独立性及货币政策与汇率政策的协调性。在当前的经济环境下,我国美元化的趋势日益明显,为避免美元化对国内经济的冲击,我国必须在保持宏观经济稳定的基础上,进一步深化金融体系改革,并试行“目标区”汇率形成机制。

US Dollar-orientation is a currency substitution of strong currency expelling weak one. Convertibility of local currency, completeness of domestic financial market, national income level and wealth level of the country, difference of real yield rate between local and foreign currencies, and whether exchange rate of local currency is over-estimated all have impact upon US Dollar-orientation; US Dollar-orientation not only weakens income effect of fiscal policy in a country, but influences independence of monetary policy of that country and cooperation between monetary policy and exchange rate policy; in present economic environment in China, a tendency of US Dollar-orientation is increasingly clear. In order to avoid its assaulting domestic economy, China must further deepen financial system reform on the basis of keeping macro economy stability, forming “target zone” exchange rate generation mechanism on a trial basis.