岩石力学问题专家系统的一种不确定性推理方法

An Uncertainty Reasoning Nethod in Expert Systems for Rock Mechanics Problems

不确定性知识的处理和运用是岩石力学问题专家系统设计中的关键问题之一。针对岩石力学问题具有随机性、模糊性和信息不完全性的特征，本文提出了一种综合考虑这三种不确定性的不确定性推理方法，给出了单一路径推理和多路径推理的不确定性传播算法。应用神经网络学习知识命题的确定性真值和前提命题的权重，实现了这两部分不确定性知识获取的自动化。应用结果表明，本文提出的不确定性推理模型是科学的、有效的。

The processing of the uncertainty is one of the key problems in design expert systems for rockmechanics problems. Based on analysis of uncertainty, an uncertainty reasoning method processing ran-domness, fuzziness and incompleteness was proposed. Uncertainty propagation algorithms of single-pathand multi-path inference were discussed. The certainty values of knowledes and weights of various fac-tors were learned by neural networks. It offers automation of the kilowledge acquisition task associatedwith certainty values and weights, often the most difficult parts of knowledge extraction. This approachhas been applied to the expert systems developed by authors recentiy.The inlerence results show thatthis approach is scientific and practical.