奥运会田径项目成绩发展趋势及灰色预测研究

Research on Developing Trend and Grey Prediction of Athletic Performance in Olympic Games

以历届奥运会田径比赛各项最好成绩为基础 ,利用灰色理论的GM (1,1)模型方法探讨了奥运会田径项目的发展变化趋势。结果显示 ,从总的趋势看 ,奥运会的各田径项目都呈发展上升趋势 ;从第 2 0届以后 ,男子的马拉松、30 0 0m障碍、跳远、链球等项目 ,女子的 80 0m、15 0 0m、跳远、铅球等项目都略有下降趋势。在此基础上 ,利用 3数据建模预测法 ,给出了奥运会田径主要项目的预测模型和第 2

Based on best performance of each event in track and fields in Olympic Games,this paper discusses the developing trend through using the GM(1,1) of Grey theory.The result shows that the general trend of events tends to ascent,while man's marathon,3 000 m steeplechase,long jump,hammer and woman's 800 m,1 500 m,long jump and shot put descend a litter since 20 th Olympic Games.According to it,major event performance of track and fields in 28 th Olympic Games are predicted through using 3 data modeling.