中国延边朝鲜族人口预测GM模型

GREY MODEL AND THE PREDICTION OF CHINA YANBIAN KOREAN POPULATION

本文以中国延边朝鲜族人口的时间序列为依据．应用灰色系统理论，建立了延边朝鲜族人口预测灰色模型，并提出了１９９１年至１９９７年的人口预测值，经预测值与实际数据的比较，符合一级精度要求．本文结果可为政府部门，制定各种方针政策提供有效的数据．

Based on the Grey System theory and the time series data of the China YanbianKorean population, tile paper proposes grey model of the prediction of China Yanbian Koreanpopulation (GM Model). From the model deduced the pattern of the Yanbian Korean populationdgnamic state. From the model, deduced the prediction data Peries which were Yanbian Koreanpopulation from 1991 to 1997. The degree of accuracy of the prediction data of 1991 which deduced by the GM model comparde to Yanbian statisttes bureau published data in 1991,reached99.666%