液体火箭发动机可靠性增长分析模型研究

Reliability-growth Analysis Model for Liquid Rocket Engine

液体火箭发动机可靠性要求高 ,试验费用昂贵 ,有必要采用可靠性增长分析技术指导可靠性增长决策 ,以减少试验费用、降低研制风险。结合液体火箭发动机小子样及可靠性增长的阶段性特点 ,提出采用基于信息折合的Bayes指数可靠性增长分析模型 ,综合利用产品全程试验信息 ,评估可靠性增长水平。在评估液体火箭发动机可靠性增长水平的基础上 ,结合改进的跟踪、增长与预测 (MTGP)模型跟踪和预测可靠性水平 ,提供可靠性增长决策。研究表明 ,本文提出的方法可以科学分析液体火箭发动机的可靠性增长 ,指导可靠性增长决策 ,对于小子样。

Liquid rocket engine demands high reliability and high test expenditures. It is necessary to use reliability growth analysis technology to guide decisions for saving test expenditures, shortening the development cycle and reducing risks. Exponential growth model based on converted information was brought forward. The model can utilize the whole test information and evaluate its reliability dynamically based on small samples and reliability growth characteristic of liquid rocket engine. Modified tracking, growth and predicting model was used for tracking the reliability growth process and decision. The study shows that the method can analyses the reliability growth and guide decision for liquid rocket engines. The method has a broad application foreground in small sample and high test expenditure products.