2003年大姚6.2级地震的短临预报回顾与思考

Review of predicting Dayiao 6.2 Earthquake on 18 June 2003

通过对云南1920年以来间隔时间大于500天的8组中强震的时-空-强特征分析,发现后一地震的发震 时间、地点和震级都有很强的规律性,610±20天为发震的优势时间,地点多集中在云南省的中北部,震级则可 用关联性公式计算。详细介绍了2003年大姚6.2级地震短临预报的主要依据和方法,并指出大姚地震短临预报 中值得思考的几个问题,讨论了地震"三要素"准确与偏差产生的可能原因。

Analyzing the space - temporal and intensity of 8 group strong earthquakes with the interval period of 500 days from 1920, we find that a moderate earthquake occurs after 610±10 days from the last one. The most earthquakes like this situation focus on the middle and northern parts of Yunnan province. Basing on this character, we made a prediction for Dayiao 6.2 Earthquake on 18 June 2003 and give some explanation reasons for this prediction.