森林火灾防治决策专家系统的研究与实现

Study and Realization of the Expert System for Forest Fire Preventive Decision-making

笔者比较系统地收集、研究了林火专家多年积累的理论、经验和解决问题的方法以及各种预测模型、模型的适应条件和使用规则等 ,利用人工智能和COM组件技术 ,通过模型技术和专家系统技术的有机结合 ,建立了基于网络的森林火灾防治决策专家系统。实现了森林火灾从火灾预测、林火扑救决策、清理火场、看守火场到最后的损失评估全过程的推理辅助决策 ;实现了整个决策过程中预测模型和预测结果随外界条件的突变而进行的实时修正 ,从而真正实现了森林火灾管理各个阶段的实时性、准确性和正确性。

The knowledge, experience, problem solving method and various prediction models, the adaptability of the models and the rules of their use accumulated by wood fire experts for many years were systematically collected and studied. Using the artificial intelligence and COM module technique, combining with the model technique and expert system technique, the web forest fire prevention decision-making expert system was established, by which a logical assistant decision-making covering the whole course of fire prediction, decision making for fire fighting, clean up of the fire place, watching the fire place and finally the lose evaluation is realized. The real time revision of the prediction model and predictive outcome due to the changes of surroundings in the process of decision making was also realized. The real time, precision and accuracy in different phase of forest fire management is truly realized.