滑坡系统静动态规律及斜坡不稳定性空时定量预测

STATIC AND DYNAMIC REGULARITY OF LANDSLIDES AND SPACE-TIME PROGNOSIS OF SLOPE INSTABILITY

文章基于近数年来室内外测绘试验分析研究工作,论述了滑坡静、动态规律。针对其群体“静态” 规律,论证了斜坡不稳定性空间定量预测的某些基本原理方法;针对其群、单体动态规律讨论了滑坡灾害暴发时间的预测预报基础技术。从系统论观点出发,概括了滑坡系统空时定量预测的三类数学模型——确定性、随机性及灰色系统模型的基本分工和联合模式的勾通特点与功能。文章以陕西东南部变质岩滑坡和长江中上游中生界砂泥岩地层滑坡为实例,讨论了斜坡不稳定性空、时定量预测的重点研究成果。文末概括了几点重要结论。

Based on the field mapping and laboratory experiment and analytic researches made in the recent years,the paper states static-dynamic regularity of landslides . Aiming at 'static' regularity of slide groups, the certain basic fundamentals and methods of quantitative space prognosis of slope instability are demonstrated; pointed at the dynamic regularity of slide unit or groups, some principles and techniques of quantitative time prognosis of the occurrence of landslide hazards are discussed. From the viewpoint of system theory,linking characters and func-tions of the basic dividing work and united mode of three - type mathematic mo3 dels-determinated, stochastic and grey system for quantitative space-time prognosis of landslides are generalized. As the examples of metamorphic rock landslides in south-east Shanxi and of those ones being composed of Mesozoic sand-clay rocks along the middle and upper reaches of Yangtze River, the paper has discussed the key researched results of space-time prognosis of slope instability. At last, some important conclusions are summarized.