我国价格泡沫成分的形成机制分析与实证检验

The Analysis and Empirical Test of the Price Bubbles in China’s Economy

由于各种经济因素的扰动和冲击,价格水平往往会偏离均衡约束所形成的基础价格,从而导致各种经济泡沫的出现。文章分析了我国经济运行中泡沫的形成机制和存在性。通过检验我国经济运行不同阶段的价格变化路径上是否存在理性泡沫成分的假设后发现,只有在1983年1月至1989年12月这段高通货膨胀时期价格水平当中包含了泡沫成分,并以此对我国通货膨胀或通货紧缩的成因和属性给出了分析和判断。

As a result of shocks of various economical factors, price always deviates from its normal path, and thereby leads to various economical bubbles. By Hausman specification error test, we examine the existence and formation of the price bubbles for various stages in China's economy. We find that significant price bubble only exists in the inflation period, from January 1983 to December 1989. Based on the findings, we analyze the causes and characteristics of inflation and deflation.