中国经济周期的非对称性问题研究

About the Business Cycle Asymmetry in Chinese Economy

经济周期的非对称性对于经济周期的研究具有非常重要的意义。文章利用HP滤波和时间趋势剔除技术对中国主要宏观经济变量的对数序列(季度)进行了长期趋势的剥离,得到了反映中国经济周期性波动的周期成分;区分了关于经济周期的两种类型的非对称:深度型(DEEP)非对称和陡峭型(STEEP)非对称;利用Sichel(1993)提出的对经济周期非对称性的检验方法,对中国的主要宏观经济变量进行了非对称性的检验,结果发现了实际GDP(对数)等经济变量中周期性非对称的证据。实际GDP(对数)序列出现周期性非对称的原因是多方面的,实证研究表明价格在经济周期的不同阶段表现出了非对称性调整,而价格的非对称性调整会导致对社会资源的非对称配置,进而导致经济周期的非对称性。

The asymmetry of business circle is very important to modern business circle theory. Using HP filter and simple linear detrending method, we get the cyclical components of Chinese macroeconomic variables. Two types of asymmetry are distinguished, one is deepness and the other is steepness. Using the test from Daniel.E.Sichel (1993), we get the evidence of asymmetry of business circle. As for the cause of the asymmetry, we show that the price behaves differently in different phase of business cycle, which means that the asymmetric adjustment of price in business circle results in the asymmetric allocation of resources in the market economy. Hence, business circle asymmetry comes into being.