欧元运行现状及前景分析

The Running State of Euro and an Analysis of its Future

欧元诞生一年来 ,其运行情况与先前大多数人的预测并不一致 ,对外汇率全线下跌 ,尤其对美元汇率下跌幅度之大远超出人们的预料。原因主要是初始汇率定值太高、欧元区经济增长率相对较低及国际不利因素的影响等。但总体上看 ,其运行比较成功 ,体现在区内物价稳定、欧元债券发行额上升、扮演了外汇市场调控的角色及为大多数国家所认可等方面。保证欧元未来平稳运行的基本因素 ,如区内总体经济实力强大、经济增长率趋升、高度独立的欧洲央行及充分的法律保障机制等 ,仍占主导地位。但同时也必须正视和解决诸如高失业率、经济发展不平衡及成员国间政策协调困难等问题。

Since its birth one year ago, the Euro has been circulating in a state which is out of many people's anticipations.Its exchange rate against all other currencies dropped,especially the drastic fall of its exchange rate against U.S dollars. The main causes are:its rather high original exchange rate,the relatively slow economic growth in Euro regions and the unfavorable international situations.However,on the whole,the Euro has been running fairly smooth in that prices are stable in its regions, and it has played a regulating role on the foreign exchange market and has been accepted by many nations.The essential factors of insuring its future smooth running still hold sway.These factors are,for example,the impressive power of the overall economy within its regions,the steady economic growth,the highly independent European Central Bank and ample legal guarantee system.At the same time, such problems as the high unemployment rate,the imbalance of policies among the member states, are yet to be confronted and tackled.