1891－1990年期间北半球大气环流和中国气候的变化

THE VARIIATIONS OF CIRCULATION PATTERN IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN CHINA DURING 1891-1990

根据１８９１－１９９０年北半球大气环流型Ｗ、Ｃ、Ｅ年频数以及全国平均年温、北京和上海的年温的时间序列，计算分析了它们各自的主值函数、功率谱和凝聚谱，得到了环流和温度的百年长期趋势、周期谱图和它们之间的凝聚关系，并用距平累加曲线法，相邻两阶段的信噪比法，揭示了环流和温度在近百年变化过程中的转折和突变。最后，用Ｍａｎｎ－Ｋｅｎｄａｌｌ法对它们作了检验，讨论了环流异常与气候异常的关联性，并给予一定的解释。

The time series of annual frequency of the circulation patterns W,C,E in theNorthern Hemisphere and annual mean temperature of Beijing(T_B), Shanghai(T_s )andthe whole country(T_c)in the period of 1891-1990 are expanded by a long-termtendency,a periodic function and a random function. The coherence between circulationand temperature are calculated and analyzed.The abrupt changes of circulation andtemperature in the last 100 years are revealed by the methods of the accumulatedanomalous curves,the signal/noise ratio as well as the Mann-Kendall test.Thecorrelations between anomalous circulation and climate are discussed with someexplanations.