公元1500年以来EINino事件与中国降水分布型的关系

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE EL NINO AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS IN CHINA SINCE 1500 AD

利用我国近５００年旱涝等级资料和公元１５００年以来的ＥＩＮｉｎｏ事件的记录，用合成分析方法，讨论ＮＮｉｎｏ事件的有关年份，中国东部夏季降水的空间分布特征．对１５００－１９９０年间１０１例ＥＩＮｉｎｏ事件所作的ＥＩＮｉｎｏ当年的旱涝等级合成图表明：多雨地带在东北、黄淮地区和广东沿海，而干旱少雨地带在内蒙－甘肃和长江中下游地区；这１０１例ＥＩＮｉｎｏ事件结束后的第一个非ＥＩＮｉｎｏ年的合成图，则表明其旱涝分布型几乎正好与ＥＩＮｉｎｏ当年的相反。１９５１－１９９０年间的９例ＥＩＮｉｎｏ事件当年和其结束后第一年的旱涝等级场的合成图所显示的旱涝分布型式与过去４９０年间１０１例的合成结果相似．对公元１５００年以来的各个世纪，亦即１６、１７、１８、１９和２０世纪，所作的相应合成图表明，各个世纪的ＥｌＮｉｎｏ有关年份多雨带、少雨带平均分布，大体上和过去４９０年间的总体特征一致。各世纪间的差异仅仅表现为出现在黄河流域、长江流域的多雨带、少雨带的位置和范围都有些偏北或偏南、或大、或小的不同。因而，这１０１例合成口所呈现的特征，可当作是ＥＩＮｉｎｏ年份我国东部降水的典型分布．

Based on the historical EI Nino records and the yearly dryness/wetness grade data1n China during the 1500-1990 A.D,the composite dryness/wetness grade charts ofEI Nino year, and the first non-EI Nino year after ending the EI Nino event for 101cases have been done , respectively. They show the deficient rain areas are distributed inthe regions of lnner Mongolia-Gansu Provinces and the Lower-Middle ChangjiangRiver,and the plentiful rain areas in Northeast China , Huang-Huai River region andGuangdong coastal area for the EI Nino years。In the first non-EI Nino year after endingthe EI Nino event,the precipitation pattern is almost opposite to that in the onset year. For the total 9 cases occurred in the 1951-1990, the distribution of plentiful rainareas and deficient rain area sappears to be similar to that on the composite charts of 101cases for the last 490 years,whether in the onset year or in the first non-EI Nino year.Furthermore,the composite charts for each century show that some main features arestill similar to that for 490 years. So , the common distributive features mentioned aboveappeared in the past 490 years,40 years and each century can be considered as the typicalprecipitation pattern correlated with the EI Nino events in the eastern China.