用业务有限区模式预报台风路径的初步试验

PRELIMINARY EXPERIMENTS ON TYPHOON TRACK PREDICTION WITH AN OPERATIONAL LIMITED-AREA MODEL

利用国家气象中心新的有限区业务分析预报系统（ＬＡＦＳ）￣［１］，根据实例台风资料的一些参数和客观分析场，形成包含理想台风模型的模式初值，并将一个和业务有限区预报模式基本相同的、水平分辨率更高的预报模式和有限区预报模式单向嵌套，进行台风路径预报的初步试验。

The preliminary experiments on typhoon track prediction are presented in the paper。 An idealized typhoon vortex is constructed and superposed on theobjectiveanalysis using observed typhoon data and the new operational limited-area,analysis and forecast system(LAFS)in NMC. Then the model initial values are obtained.The typhoontrack is predicted by an finer grid model,which is the same as the model of LAFS exceptfor its horizontal resolution, and which is nested with the LAFS in one way.