建德县南峰乡丘陵山地开发利用的生态经济规划研究Ⅱ．不同决策方案的系统模拟

Ecolomic planning research on developiug and utilizing hilly and mountainous lands at Nanfeng township Ⅱ

采用系统动力学方法对６种不同的决策方案进行动态模拟和灵敏度分析，预测和分析各种决策方案的系统生产力、稳定性和持续性．结果表明，多目标规划型的系统生产力较高稳定性和持续性较好，是一种较优的选择方案；现状型的系统生产力较低，林主型的生产力很高，但经济产出水平低，柑桔、板栗和蚕桑型的系统生产力高，但系统的稳定性和持续性较差．

Six kinds of decision plans are simulated,forecasted and analysed using system dynamics method.The results show that multiple objective programming model is the best one,and the present and forest models are worse. Orange, mulberry and Chinese chestnut models are faced with a greater risk.The planting area of mulberry,Chinese chestnut,vegetable bamboo and green manure crop should be enlarged.