日元贬值与日本经济政策的困境

Policy dilemma faced by the Japan Government

日本经济自90年代初资产泡沫崩溃以来长期萧条,由于货币政策作用甚微,扩张性财政政策效应也非常有限。在全球经济衰退的背景下,日本政府刺激经济的唯一手段便是使日元贬值,而这又同提高日元国际地位的政策目标完全背道而驰。在这种两难处境下,日本经济是否能如新上台的小泉政府所许诺的那样,在三年之内扭转局势成为举世瞩目的问题。下面详细分析一下当前日本的货币、汇率和财政政策及效果。

The Japanese economy is now in very severe situation with the Nikkei Average down to 9000 level,and unemployment rate reaching historical high 5% in Sep 20001. The zero -interest monetary policy has fallen into 'liquidity trap',and fiscal policy being confined by the already massive public debt.