欧元长期低迷的外在制约因素分析

On Exterior Factors of Low EURO Exchange Rate

现在美国的经济增长速度开始放缓 ,而欧盟的经济状况在经历两年的调整之后进入一个比较稳定的发展阶段。从理论上来讲欧元的汇率应该有一个坚挺的趋势 ,但事实却相反 ,欧元却一直走弱。本文通过欧盟和美国对欧元态度的对比 ,对这种现象做了一些分析。美国出于自身的利益考虑不希望欧元走强 ;而欧盟各国也都乐于看到欧元疲软 ;与此同时市场投资者也对欧元信心不足。这些态度其实成了解释欧元汇率的走势为什么屡屡出乎预测家的估计 。

The economic condition of Europe Union has come into a steadily developing stage after having been regulated in the past two years,while the economic condition of America has slowed its developing speed. In theory, the exchange rate of EURO should go up, but the fact is to the contrary, its exchange rate to U.S. dollar being in a low degree. In this paper, we analyse the attitude that America and Europe Union hold to EURO to explain this strange situation. America doesn't hope EURO gets very strong for its benefits and Europe Union doesn't ,either. At the same time, the investigators in market don't have enough confidence in it. All of these become key reasons that make the tendency of EURO surprising to people and keep EURO in an unfavorable condition.